As of yesterday there were 9,093 active listings (non-condo) on the market in Jacksonville Florida.  In the past 30 days, 923 have sold in the Jacksonville real estate market.  In the past year, there have been 10,484 sales of non-condo housing units.  In comparison, at the same time in 2006, when we were in our first year of a downturn, there were around 17,900 sales in the prior twelve month period.

The number that really caught my eye was the home sales pending.  Based on the MLS it appears that there are 2,898 sales pending.  This is at its highest level since JUNE 2006.  This reflects a 32% pending to active ratio...still in buyer market territory.  The outstanding news is this is DOUBLE what it was last year at this time.

Here is the reality of that number...notice above where I said that "based on the MLS it appears"...many of those will not close.  Pending home sales used to translate a lot closer to actual closings than they do now.  Why is that?  There are several factors that are contributing to a higher than normal number of fall-outs in the Jacksonville real estate market.  Here is just a sample of some of the reasons involved:

  • The higher incidence of Jacksonville short sales.  While we love doing Jacksonville short sales, there are a myriad of reasons I could give here in explanation of this.  Just a couple of examples are short sales being attempted incorrectly, sellers not being properly pre-qualified, short sale pricing not being justifiable, and the sluggishness of banks.
  • Appraisals are killing transactions.  Appraisers are scared and are appraising much lower than in previous times.  (Did you know banks are starting to sue appraisers for old appraisals?)  Some of the appraised values are downright laughable!
  • Buyers and Buyer Agents who are making offers or getting into contracts on multiple short sale properties.  (Nope, I'm not kidding about this...)
  • Banks/Lenders who are being much more stringent in underwriting loans.  A prequal doesn't necessarily translate into a loan. 
  • Sometimes banks really can't sell foreclosures that are under contract yet.  Ever heard of re-foreclosure?  Neither had we until recently.  

Jacksonville distressed property sales.  (Yes I used that as a complete sentence.)  That's the big news in Jacksonville real estate although it's a topic many in the industry would prefer to avoid.

In the past 30 days..

  • 32% of all non-condo home sales in the Jacksonville market have been foreclosures.  Foreclosures drive down market prices because they are usually put on the market at a price that is a good percentage below fair market value.
  • 13% of all property sales have been Jacksonville short sales.
  • 45% of all non-condo home sales in the Jacksonville real estate market have been distressed property sales.  This number includes both Jacksonville short sales and Jacksonville foreclosures.
  • 45% of sales have been straight resale properties.  This represents the sales that took place where either the seller had enough equity to sale, or had money to bring to the table to make up the deficiency.

There has been a slight increase in the number of homes sold this year vs. last year at this time.  This being said, prices have dropped quite a bit and homeowners have continued to see their values erode.  Last year at this time only 30% of all sales in the past 30 days were distressed property sales vs. 45% this year.